Can I Retire? Series — Part 12 of 12
You’ve done the work.
You know your spending. You’ve accounted for big rocks and what changes in retirement. You’ve inventoried your investable assets and sorted them into buckets. You know your guaranteed income and your gap. You understand withdrawal sequencing, how the calculator uses real history, how taxes work, and how to stress-test your plan.
Now comes the question you came here to answer:
Can I retire?
Reading Your Results
When you run the calculator, you’ll see several outputs. Here’s how to interpret them:
Success rate. The percentage of historical simulations where your money lasted your entire retirement. This is the headline number, but don’t obsess over it. The difference between 87% and 92% is less meaningful than it feels. Both are solid.
Median ending balance (P50). What you’d have left at the end in a typical scenario. If this number is large, you’re probably being conservative — you could spend more or retire earlier. If it’s near zero, you’re cutting it close.
10th percentile (P10). Your outcome in a rough-but-not-catastrophic scenario. This is the number to pay attention to. If P10 is positive, you survived the bad paths. If P10 is zero or negative, you ran out of money in at least 10% of simulations.
90th percentile (P90). Your outcome if markets are kind. Nice to see, but don’t plan around it. This is the upside, not the expectation.
What the Numbers Mean
Here’s a rough framework for interpreting your success rate:
95%+ success rate: Very strong. You’re likely to leave money behind — potentially a lot. If this is intentional (legacy goals), great. If not, you might be able to retire earlier, spend more, or both. You’ve built significant margin.
85-95% success rate: Solid. This is where most comfortable retirements land. You can handle some bad luck. You have room to adapt if needed. Most financial planners consider this the target zone.
75-85% success rate: Workable, with caveats. You’ll probably be fine, but you have less margin for error. You’ll need flexibility — the ability to cut spending in bad years, pick up some income, or adjust your plan. Not ideal for someone who needs certainty.
Below 75% success rate: Risky. More than 1 in 4 historical paths ran out of money. This doesn’t mean you can’t retire, but it means you’re betting on favorable conditions. Consider working longer, reducing spending, or building more savings before pulling the trigger.
The Three Answers
When you look at your results, you’ll land in one of three places:
Yes, you can retire. Your success rate is strong. Your P10 outcome is acceptable. You’ve stress-tested the plan and it holds up. The numbers say you’re ready. The only remaining question is whether you want to — which is a different question entirely.
Not yet, but here’s what would change that. Your success rate is below your comfort level, but not drastically. You can see the path: another year or two of work, a modest spending reduction, delaying Social Security, or some combination. The gap is closeable. This is useful information — it tells you exactly what to aim for.
Not close. Your success rate is low. The gap between where you are and where you need to be is significant. This isn’t failure — it’s clarity. You now know the reality, and you can make informed decisions about trade-offs: work longer, reduce lifestyle expectations, find ways to increase income, or accept more risk.
Beyond the Numbers
The calculator gives you probabilities. It doesn’t give you certainty, and it doesn’t make the decision for you.
Some things the numbers can’t capture:
Your ability to adapt. If you’re willing and able to cut spending in bad years, pick up part-time work, or make other adjustments, your real odds are better than the calculator shows. Flexibility is a form of wealth that doesn’t appear in the numbers.
Your personal circumstances. Health conditions, family obligations, career satisfaction, geographic flexibility — all of these affect the retirement decision in ways a calculator can’t model.
The cost of waiting. Working “one more year” for extra margin has a cost: one less year of retirement. If you’re 65 and healthy, that year has real value. The perfect retirement plan that starts at 70 might be worse than a good-enough plan that starts at 65.
What you’re retiring to. The financial question is only half the equation. Retiring with a clear sense of purpose, activities, and social connections matters as much as having enough money. Don’t just retire from something — retire to something.
The Retirement Decision Checklist
Before you make the call, run through these questions:
Is my success rate in my comfort zone? (Know your own risk tolerance.)
Can I live with the P10 outcome? (What happens if markets are rough?)
Do I have flexibility to adapt? (Can I cut spending or earn income if needed?)
Have I accounted for healthcare? (Especially if retiring before Medicare at 65.)
Is my spending estimate realistic? (Honest about what I actually spend, not what I wish I spent?)
Have I stress-tested with different assumptions? (What if spending is 10% higher? What if I live to 95?)
Do I know what I’m retiring to? (Purpose, activities, social connections?)
If you can answer yes to these questions and your numbers check out, you’re ready.
If You’re Not Ready Yet
That’s not a failure. That’s information.
You now have clarity on what would change the answer. Maybe it’s two more years of saving. Maybe it’s reducing your target spending by $8,000. Maybe it’s waiting to claim Social Security at 70 instead of 67.
Run the scenarios. Find the lever that closes the gap most efficiently for your situation. Set a target. Work toward it.
And then run the calculator again. That’s what it’s there for.
The Final Word
Retirement planning isn’t about finding the perfect answer. There is no perfect answer. The future is uncertain, markets are unpredictable, and your own needs will change in ways you can’t foresee.
What you can do is make an informed decision with realistic numbers, honest assumptions, and enough margin to handle surprises.
That’s what this series has been about. That’s what the calculator helps you do.
Now go run your numbers.
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Ready to see where you stand? Run the calculator at caniretire.app
